Dec 29 Podcast #824: Prediction Review for 2017
Podcast Tags: HDTV, HDTV Predictions 
It's hard to believe that another year has gone by! With that it's time to see how we did with our 2017 predictions.
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Today's Show:
News:
- Americans can’t keep up with all the TV services they have
- Smart speakers get popular with consumers
- Amazon's Alexa ranks No. 1 on app stores on Christmas
- LG Display to open Chinese OLED production center
Other:
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Prediction Review for 2017
It's hard to believe that another year has gone by! With that it's time to see how we did with our 2017 predictions.
This year's scorecard:
Ara: 3/5 A very respectable 60%
Braden: An awe inspiring 2/5. (.5 + .5 + 1) = Nailed it!
Ara:
DirecTV Now will announce more than 250K Subscribers by year’s end
We have no official number on how many subscribers there are to the satcaster’s IPTV product and there are some missing pieces to the offering. I am betting that DirecTV will add a cloud based DVR and sign deals with local channels to really make this a service that you would make cutting the cord worthwhile.
Result: Well I am off to a great start! There were one million subscribers as of December 5th! And that with a service that doesn’t have DVR.
Networks will allow streaming of their live feeds without the need for a TV subscription
This is the year the networks realize it's about eyeballs! It doesn’t matter whether your viewers receive the signal over the air, through satellite/cable or via the Internet. It's about how many people watch your content. And add to the fact that streaming over IP means you can’t skip commercials and it becomes a no brainer! I can’t believe it hasn’t already happened.
Result: So far the only network that I know of that does this is The CW. I guess the networks don’t want to upset the cable and satellite companies. At some point with all the cord cutting that is going on this won’t be an issue. I may have been a couple of years early on this.
Apple will introduce a competitor to the Echo and Google Home
It wouldn’t be a prediction list from Ara without at least one mention of Apple on it. Apple already has all the pieces required for this type of product. Siri for voice, Homekit for automation, and the AppleTV for content. The only thing missing is the actual device. Look for that some time in 2017!
Result: Chalk up another prediction come true. Although it's not shipping, the Apple Airpod was introduced earlier this year and will be shipping soon! Look for a review when it arrives.
Netflix will stream live sports
Granted this is a long shot, but Netflix is looking for content and what better than live sports. This year twitter streamed live NFL games so why not Netflix? Then why not stream live network content and voila! Yet another IP based TV service.
Result: If I had only said Amazon Prime! At least I am batting 500.
Virtual Reality will arrive thanks to live events
This will be the year that you will be able to experience live events like a concert of sporting event from the comfort of your home. And you will have the best seat in the house!! Virtual reality has come a long way but who wants to watch a movie when the experience is marginally better. But watching a live concert or say the World Series from the best seat in the house. Well that’s pretty cool. You would have a full 360 view of the show and venue. And if done right, they could use Dolby Atmos to give you 360 degree sound experience as well!
Result: I was worried about this one but there is a company called NextVR that uses headsets like Oculus, Playstation, Microsoft, and Google to put you right in the middle of the action of NFL, NBA, Concerts and more! If they get the NHL I may get one myself!
Braden:
Day and Date Movie Streaming
It’s going to happen this year. Either Sean Parker’s ‘The Screening Room’ will finally go live, or someone else will figure out a way to work with theater owners to make this a reality. Could be someone we’ve talked about like Fandango, or possibly even a big theater chain. It happens this year. I hope.
Result: I’d like to claim partial credit on this one. Just because Bright was a flop doesn’t mean we didn’t get a true, first-run blockbuster movie in streaming form on the day it was released. Will Smith has dropped some terrible movies (Wild Wild West, After Earth, need I go on...) so Bright is a legit, first-run “blockbuster.” Hopefully we get more in 2018. And hopefully they’re actually worth watching.
80” Televisions for under $2000
Going to carry-forward yet again. I think I was just two years too early. Both OLED and 4K will push prices down for 1080p TVs. Wanting to capitalize on the desire for a larger screen, Manufacturers will push prices down for the big 1080p sets to get them flying off the shelves. So the price for a starter series 80” TV will drop to under $2000 at some point this year. Maybe Black Friday, maybe for another event, but it’ll drop.
Result: Not sure if it’s legit, but a site called Joe’s AV has an 85” Samsung on sale right now for $1795 (Samsung 85inch Series 7 LED 4K Ultra HD - UN85JU7100FXZA). Phew. At least I didn’t get blanked this year. It’s the 2015 model, but that was the plan, the new stuff pushes down the price for the old stuff!
Amazon or Netflix content on Traditional TV
Either Amazon or Netflix will create and produce an original series, be it drama or sitcom, that will air on a traditional broadcast network using traditional weekly distribution. They already have a ton of customers, so they don’t really need the extra advertising, but many of those customers still aren’t tuning to Amazon or Netflix for original content. This will help them make that offering more tangible.
Result: Nope. Swung on and missed.
Next Gen TV (ATSC 3.0) equipment available
They’ve already proven ATSC 3.0 by broadcasting it live in 4K using the ATSC 3.0 standard. LG made the antenna and receiver used in that test. Since the FCC won’t give broadcasters a second channel to use for the new format during the transition like it did with 1.0, it’s going to be a hard cutover, so some means of introducing the new technology will be necessary. Everyone will need to have the new tuner before the switch flips, and that could take a couple years to fully roll out.
Result: Partial. On January 6, 2017, LG Electronics announced that their 2017 4K TVs sold in South Korea would include ATSC 3.0 tuners. But in the US, the FCC just finally officially approved 3.0 on Nov 16, so there just wasn’t enough time between then and now to get the gear to market. Everyone must have been waiting for that final approval, otherwise this prediction was a lock. There are some pro level tuners available, but nothing consumer.
Surround Sound from a Single Speaker
Sure, we already have sound bars, but this is different. This is one speaker, mounted in your ceiling, that can aim sound in any direction, or all directions. There already relying on, and working to perfect, shifted and reflected sound in technologies like Atmos. Why not use a single source mounted where your ceiling light or ceiling fan used to be, heck maybe even build lights into it, and there you go. Could set the stage for 360 projection down the road.
Result: I knew this one was way out there, a sci-fi enabled prediction. Didn’t happen this year. Oh well. There’s always 2027.
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