Jan 2 Podcast #668: Predictions for 2015
Podcast Tags: HDTV Predictions 
Time for the HT Guys to look into our crystal ball and try and predict the HDTV and Home Theater landscape for 2015. Our crystal ball is never as clears as a good HDTV but we give it a shot nonetheless. And no gimmies this year since we can’t even get those right!
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- 'The Interview' Generated Over $15 Million In Online Sales
- Aereo can auction off its TV-streaming tech, judge rules
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- 'Game Of Thrones' Most Pirated TV Show of 2014
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Predictions for 2015
Time for the HT Guys to look into our crystal ball and try and predict the HDTV and Home Theater landscape for 2015. Our crystal ball is never as clears as a good HDTV but we give it a shot nonetheless. No gimmies this year since we can’t even get those right! There will be a 65 inch production OLED TV for less than $5,000 Look for LG and Samsung to continue to push OLED technology. They’ll finally figure out that no one wants a curved model and produce a 65 inch flat panel OLED. Bonus prediction - It will be LG that makes this prediction a win for me! There will be a production Quantum Dot TV available for sale This is my hedge against the OLED prediction totally failing. We saw the first quantum dot TVs at CES about three years ago. LG is pushing forward with the technology. It produces higher yields than OLED and better pictures than current LEDs so this is a no brainer technology to pursue. Apple will open up the AppleTV to developers After seeing the potential of the FireTV from Amazon, Apple will realize the AppleTV is falling behind the competition. Look for a new model (AppleTV 4) with game support that will use iPhones and iPads as controllers. By the way, the 4 in AppleTV 4 stands for 4K. I can dream can’t I?? Apple to stream 4K movies and television programming If you are going to dream might as well dream big! What good is a new set top box capable of 4K content if you don’t have 4K content. Sure they will support Netflix 4K streams but the real deal will be buying and renting movies and TV shows from iTunes in 4K. Sonos to debut a dedicated 7.1 home theater system One of the main reasons people don’t have full surround systems is the need to string speaker wire everyplace. Sure the front is easy enough but why should you have to string wire when you can have freedom to place speakers wherever you want. Sonos has the best sounding wireless solution we have heard to date. So why not make a complete 7.1 system without the need of speaker wires? It would be easy to setup with almost no configuration required. When your aren’t watching movies you could repurpose the speakers for music without the need of turning on an amplifier. Now if we can only do something about those pesky power cords! At least 5 major studio movie releases will be available online concurrent with cinema release With “The Interview” now out there as a pilot for what is possible, Sony will do it again at least once, and other major studios will try their hand at it as well. Theater owners will threaten not to run the movie(s), but if the studios choose wisely, theater owners will be forced to run them because they’d stand to lose too much in ticket sales if they didn’t. Curved televisions will go away Nobody really gets it. Manufacturers seem to be the only ones that understand the value in the curved screen. Realizing there’s no demand for it, manufacturers will make them disappear. This means we’ll be on the hunt for another gimmick to boost television sales. Look for 4k to try to fill that gap. But it’ll still be a bit niche, so look for something else as well. Automation integration in your smart TV? Could this be the year of home automation? Live television streaming won’t be coming to your town Did an Aereo 180 on this prediction, but none of the big players in streaming set top boxes: Apple, Google, Microsoft or Amazon, will add live TV streaming to their box. Despite rumors, it ain’t happening this year. Aereo showed that there’s no way around the retransmission fees, and there’s no way a streaming provider would get premium channels for less than the others pay, so there would be no cost advantage to the consumer. And in most markets streaming would be inferior quality to Cable or Satellite, so it’s a lose-lose for consumers. 80” Televisions for under $2000 The biggest TVs on the consumer market right now, at reasonable prices, are a few models at 84, 85 and 90 inches. But there are a bunch of options at 80” from all the major manufacturers. The lowest price for an 80” at Amazon is a Vizio model for $2999. Costco has a Sharp 80” for $2499. Manufacturers may see that the next round of upgrades could be driven simply by larger screen sizes. Everyone has an HDTV, but it is somewhere between 40 and 60 inches, and they know they can go bigger. If the price is right, they will. So that price will drop to under $2000 at some point this year. Maybe Black Friday, maybe for another event, but it’ll drop. Amazon to release a full length motion picture In an attempt to leapfrog Netflix, Amazon will beat them to the punch with the first original full length motion picture, with all of the production value of a major studio release. They’ve already roped in stars like John Goodman and Jeffrey Tambor for their original TV shows. They’ll get a big name and a good script for their movie. We’ll see a huge PR blast with it, and it’s availability on the Fire TV and Fire Phone, just to show Netflix that two can play in the streaming game.
Ara’s Predictions
Braden’s Predictions
Reader Comments (3)
Ara,
I'm not sure whether to consider your prediction of a production quantum dot display as a win or a loss given Sony has been selling sets with them for a few years already :p
XBRX900A (2013)
When they brought back the 'Triluminos' light engine branding after a few years hiatus (the original display branded as Triluminos was the XBR8 in 2008, and used RGB LED's for backlighting), they started using quantum dots. While it was lauded for its color accuracy, gamut, and saturation, I think the main reason it didn't receive a ton of media attention was because there wasn't really content to take advantage of it.
This year is the perfect storm however because the pipeline for UHD (which includes support for Rec 2020) is now really upon us. HDMI 2.0/HDCP 2.2 is ready, BD 4K will be released, and we'll see some UHD broadcasts by satellite and cable providers starting to hit. Now, finally, Sony's incorporation of a QD light engine and 10-bit panels actually has a 'real' purpose. I just hope they aren't overshadowed by LG and Samsung since their only sin was being early with tech advancement.
Hi Hugh,
I did a search and did not come up with that model. Bad on my part. So I'll modify the prediction to say There will be production quantum dot display TVs from multiple manufacturers. Thanks for the correction!
Ara
Argh! Trying to find news on new TV's at CES but it all seems to be about curved and smart TV's, two categories it's really not possible for me to care LESS about. As Braden suggested months/years ago, why can't they just give us the best TV's possible?