Jan 3 Podcast #616: HDTV Predictions for 2014
Podcast Tags: 4K, HDTV Predictions, OLED 
Time for the HT Guys to look into our crystal ball and try and predict the HDTV and Home Theater landscape for 2014. Our crystal ball is never as clears as a good HDTV but we give it a shot nonetheless.
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Time for the HT Guys to look into our crystal ball and try and predict the HDTV and Home Theater landscape for 2014. Our crystal ball is never as clears as a good HDTV but we give it a shot nonetheless. No gimmies this year since we can’t even get those right! Netflix will have at least 50 4K titles for streaming - Its not really going out on a limb predicting that Netflix will have 4K titles. They’ve said as much. Its the number that I think is the real prediction. If you have a high speed connection and a 4K TV you will have some content display. Look for Youtube to have 4K content as well. OLED TV market share will remain insignificant - We have seen OLED TVs that have blown us away but when compared side by side with plasma or even the Elite LCDs they are not worth the huge price differential. Sure they can be extremely thin but is a ½ in too thick? Who cares if an OLED is half that size. Its a catch 22, until quantities go up price won’t go down. And since the quality differential isn’t worth the price I see no reason for quantities to go up. Cable and Satellite providers will offer cloud based DVR services - Imagine a world where you can have unlimited storage for your DVR recording. We see cloud storage all over the place so why not with your DVR. With better compression and a downspeed of about 4 Mbps you could watch most of your programs with little quality difference. Translate, anything the wife and kids want to record goes to the cloud. All of your programming goes to the hard drive at full quality! Aereo to win in the Supreme Court - This case has been going on for a while. The broadcasters would love to see Aereo shut down. I think this is the year that Aereo expands to new cities without the burden of lawsuits hanging around their necks. Illegal downloads to exceed traditional broadcast viewership for top three pirated shows - Game of Thrones is already illegally downloaded more than its watched on television. Breaking Bad and The Walking Dead are still viewed more on TV than downloaded illegally. The year of 4K - Manufacturers will push 4K as the new upgrade cycle for 2014. We’ll see many, many more models and prices will come down quickly. Driven down primarily by Chinese manufacturers. 3D didn’t do it; OLED is still too far off. Queue the endless debates and hand wringing over 1080p vs 4K, just like the 720p vs 1080p of yesteryear. I may have just described a few of our shows for 2014… Netflix will win at least one Content Award - Netflix is pushing into the original content space with a vengeance, trying to become the next online HBO. The industry will take them seriously this year and you’ll even see a Netflix show or Actor/Actress win an award. It may not be an Emmy, but maybe a People’s Choice or something else, but we’ll see Netflix get a trophy. 9 Channel Surround goes Mainstream - Most home theater receivers on the market are 7.1. The low cost, entry models are 5.1, some of the higher end units support 9.1. In 2014 we’ll see 9.1 receivers replace 7.1 as the standard and only the low cost, entry models will remain 7.1. The 5.1 receiver will be a relic. Dolby and DTS will both have native, discrete 9.1 support but it’ll take a while for it to show up in any content. Intel and Wal-mart Shock the World - If there are any companies big enough to pull off a major disruptive change in the home theater business, its Walmart and Intel. They’re already working together with Vudu and UltraViolet, so 2014 will see them take the next step to do something really unique. It could be first run TV shows available for streaming the same time they air, or an all-you-can-eat, a la carte TV subscription, or the ability to watch first run movies at home via... Virtual Movie Going Experience - The major studios will work in partnership with local movie theaters, to allow you to buy tickets but watch the movie in the comfort of your own home. The theater will sell the tickets, hopefully at a discount, so they share in the revenue, and everybody wins. This sets the stage to remove the theater as the middle man altogether. A 2014 prediction - Tom Colorado Hi guys, I just listened to the review of your 2013 predictions, and decided to help you out for next year. I believe a sad prediction, which has ~100% certainty, is that the home theater industry will continue to falter for years to come. It’s not to say that sales of large screen TV’s, streaming video and even sound bar sales will not do well, but that sales of audio receivers and discrete speakers will not. Penetration rates of these systems today in the US is low, ~20 – 25% depending on the research used, and many things indicate that many/most of these systems are seldom even used. What are the reasons? In my opinion, this industry has three very large problems:
Predictions for 2014
Ara’s Predictions:
Braden’s Predictions:
Listener Predictions:
- Costs. Although the costs of components are plummeting, total costs, including installation, remain high. As your audience knows, it’s possible to do a lot of research, select great deals online, and personally do system installation to keep costs reasonable. I think most people, most of the time, have to turn all of this over to installers. Hard to estimate the additional cost of using an installer, but I know for my latest projector system, I got quotes from several installers, then saved exactly ½ of the cost by doing it all myself ($6k vs. $12k).
- Value. Home theater systems for years have been marketed as equivalent to actual theaters, typically highlighting the cool ‘crash-bang’ surround effects of the latest action movie. That was pretty cool indeed for me years ago, but my wife was never into the crash-bang, and over the years we’ve both gotten more into more soap opera type dramas: Breaking Bad, Walking Dead, Mad Men, etc… Many of our friends that have home theaters turn them off, they say because they are ‘too loud’. Meaning of course, they haven’t discovered compression modes, and, spouses won’t stand for loud explosions mixed with quiet dialog.
This comes at a time when speakers are shrinking in large screen TV’s, so now few can clearly hear all of these really cool soap operas no matter what they are using. Sound bars are the presumed answer, but as we know, sound bars make weak dialog louder, not more intelligible.
The real value in home theater systems could be crystal clear dialog, along with crash-bang, which could appeal to both soap opera and action fans. But alas, receiver/speaker manufacturers still think the value is crash-bang, and dialog can be just as bad with receivers as with sound bars. Today, a google search of ‘how to improve dialog in home theaters’ provides ~32,000 hits, with the majority simply explaining how to increase the volume for the center channel.
If one were to be extremely optimistic, a ‘wish’ prediction would be the following. Receiver/speaker manufacturers finally wise up, and start developing systems that really meet user’s need for home theater systems. After extensive research with users, new systems are developed that:
- Are extremely simple to use. Systems can be controlled with one remote, better yet spoken commands, with defaults preset for almost everything. User manuals become one page installation charts, with all flexibility/configurability instructions for sophisticated users buried very deeply online.
- Use inexpensive components that are both easy to buy and install. Even a cave man can install a system with integrated wireless for speakers and HDMI projectors. Tomorrow’s wireless-based systems will be both reliable and high quality, and running wires everywhere will be a thing of the past.
- Have great, great sound. Speech is crystal clear, even when it comes from mumbling actors, with movie sound stages designed for theater listening. And of course, crash-bang will be just as good as today.
Instead of dealing with today’s spousal acceptance factor, we’ll have to learn how to deal with spousal insistence factor.
John Birkhead @johnnybirk - 2014 - 4K will become mainstream, but with limited content
Rich De @RDbeefmoney - 4k tv's become affordable
Travis @MINUS_Stl - 2014: The year of home automation. ;)
Audio Pickle @AudioPickle - Braden will get back to mountain biking and break his arm - video goes viral on Google Glass
Reader Comments (2)
I am responding to a comment by a viewer who called in about switching from separates to a all in one receiver. First im glad he's happy and enjoying his new receiver, but for those who are more into 2 channel audio would not be satisfied with the performance with any receiver. They are simply limited in performance due to cheaper parts, features and controls that compromise sound quality. Separates in every case will out perform integrated receivers in every area, but I would agree that your looking at much more money to put a good separate system together.
The other thing that is wrong is the setup and calibration of separates is no more complicated to setup and control than receivers. There are a couple of ways of setting up a high end music and home theater system, so you can have the best of both worlds if you have the budget and care about sound quality.
There are preamp processors that typically come with remote control which also controls all the levels to all the amplifiers so, again its no different than setting up a receiver. Most also switch video as well, so there is no limitation in controlability.
One option you may want to recommend to your viewers who are more on a budget are integrated amplifiers. Integrated amplifier typically use better quality parts, have less features that can degrade sound quality. Manufactures understand that integrated amplifiers are purchased typically by higher end customers so they use better quality parts. Power supplies, output devices, capacitors, sometimes even better resistors.
Recievers are always a compromise based on limitations on price points, and having 3+ components in one chassis.
So I would'nt discourage your readers from considering separates if high quality sound is important to them, and integrated amplifiers are a excellent stepup in performance from receivers, without being much more expensive if any.
Kevin LaTour
40 years high end audio video specialist
Additon to my previous post. I wanted to give some additonal reasons for why separates will clearly outperform integrated receivers. First and most obvious is the use of better parts in separates. Parts quality provides a HUGE improvement in sound quality. High end components put less controls and features that will compromise sound quality.
Amplifiers can be located next to speakers, shorter speaker wire runs, better transfer of power to the speakers. Long RCA cables can be run to the amplifers which is a low level signal and does not degrade over long runs as it does with recievers do with speaker wire runs.
You can really fine tune the sound by buying amplifiers that really complement the overall sound of the system. Speakers should be matched with the right ampifier that drives the speakers correctly electrically (power and current requirements) and complements the speakers sonically to create a natural balance of sound to the listeners ears. Like speakers electronics also have a sonic signiture and its combining speakers and equipment to complement one another to create that balance of sound each of us is trying to create. As we all hear differently and the rooms acoustics plays a factor in choosing the right speakers and components..
Kevin LaTour