Podcast #615: Prediction Results for 2013

At the start of each new year we look into our high def crystal ball to make our best predictions on what we think the coming year will bring in the way of HDTV and Home Theater. The ball tends to be a bit cloudy, and each year we struggle to even get close to 50%. So let’s take a look at how we thought 2013 would shake out to see how we did.

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Prediction Results for 2013

At the start of each new year we look into our high def crystal ball to make our best predictions on what we think the coming year will bring in the way of HDTV and Home Theater. The ball tends to be a bit cloudy, and each year we struggle to even get close to 50%. So let’s take a look at how we thought 2013 would shake out to see how we did.

We listed a few “gimmes” up front. The funny thing is that our gimmes didn’t even come through for us:

• WRONG: Apple will release its first HDTV.
• MAYBE: What ‘business’? The plasma business? Another Japanese TV manufacturer will walk away from the business.
• NOT SURE, but PROBABLY: Netflix will use more Internet traffic during Primetime.
• RIGHT: 4K TVs will become cheaper.

Ara’s Predictions:

Social Media will determine whether a show stays on the air - let’s face it the way Nielsen measures ratings is old and antiquated. Time to move towards the future. With Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, and Google+ it should be easier to determine whether a show has a following or not. Producers should be able to use these services to help them not only sell but pinpoint ads to the exact demographic watching the show. Look for Nielsen to revamp how it measures ratings.

Success!

Product Placement will be big - With so many DVRs out there advertisers are looking for a way to put their brand in front of you. This year I am saying that it won’t be subtle but more in your face. Rather than just seeing the product look for dialog about how good the product is. There have been a few examples of this with Toyota and Bones. Look for the cell phone companies to talk about communications on any action/cop show.

Not Really. Still about the same as 2012.

Apple will enter the home automation market - Since 2012 was the year of home automation ;-) Apple will make 2013 the year of plug and play automation. They are rumored to be interested in id8 Group R2 Studios Inc which is a startup company developing home media and automation technology. Look for Apple to tie your entertainment, lighting, and security together in a neat easy to setup package. So does this make 2013 the year of home automation?

Fail. Maybe next year?

We’ll see a “True” smart TV - I’m not talking an Internet connected TV but more of a TV that truly has some brains. Something that can sense who is in front of it and configure itself for that viewer. If more than one person is in front of the TV then maybe go into family mode or something like that. It will be voice activated. Actually it will be a cross between GoogleTV, AppleTV and a computer. Look for Samsung to develop the first True Smart TV.

Fail. Didn’t quite happen yet.

Movie Studios will eliminate DRM from their content - Following the lead of the music industry, the movie industry will see the err of their ways and make it easy for all of us to freely create video servers with legally owned content. This is my Hail Mary pass prediction. Probability of success.... less than 1%

Fail. Still waiting.

Total score: 1/5 for a whopping 20%.

Braden’s Predictions:

Adios Mother Plasma - Although plasma may have given birth to the flat screen revolution, the technology will be forced into early retirement in 2013.

Success! Panasonic, the stalwart supporter of plasma technology for the last few years announced they will be exiting the plasma business for good. While plasma will remain in stock for a while, Panasonic's exit spells the end for a great technology. The technology that started the flat screen revolution. Panasonic's plasma TV exit is the end of a brilliant era.

I’ll buy that for $300 - The average selling price for a 42” 1080p LCD TV will be $300 by the end of the year, down from $480 in 2012.

Fail. Pricing stayed pretty flat, driven by advanced features and a push into LED technology. If the prices moved downward, it was only slightly, certainly not into the $300 range.

Let’s be more than friends - As the economy continues to struggle and the price of electronics continues to plummet, 2013 will see at least one, maybe a few large mergers or acquisitions in the consumer electronics/home theater industry.

Fail. Microsoft acquired Nokia otherwise nothing. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Bummer.

Stream it to me - This year will see new release available via streaming in an all-you-can-eat subscription package.

Fail. Lo and behold, this prediction still didn’t happen. Yet I continue to make it every year. It’ll be right eventually, you just watch. Sure you can get Prima Cinema in your home now, so maybe I should get partial credit here. But I just can’t see taking partial credit on a system that costs $35,000 and $500 per movie.  If it was $3500 and $50 per movie, maybe.

You can take it to grandma’s house - In 2013 someone will show the prototype for a truly portable tablet computer. Not something thinner and lighter but still 10 inches by 8 inches, but something that either rolls up or folds up so you can very easily take it with you anywhere.

Fail. We got thinner and lighter, but still nothing flexible or foldable. Thinner and lighter is nice, but it’s an incremental change, I was looking for the game changer here, and came up empty.

Total score: 1/5 for a whopping 20%.

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