Dec 30 Podcast #511: HDTV and Home Theater Predictions for 2012
2011 was in some ways a wild year for HDTV and home theater, but in many other ways, fairly uneventful. We didn’t fare so well in our 2011 predictions, so we’re back this year with a vengeance. A lot of thought, research and soul searching went into these and we’re really hoping for a better than 50% score this year. Without further ado, the HT Guys HDTV and home theater predictions for 2012.
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Today's Show:
Blu-ray Reviews:
News:
- LG Display Announces World's Largest OLED TV Panel
- TV Prices Fall, Squeezing Most Makers and Sellers
- Box-Office Bust: Movie Attendance Hits 16-Year Low
Other:
- More info on the AVS Party at CES
- Next Generation Remote Control Extender
- Sony to sell LCD venture stake to Samsung for $940 million
HT Guys Predictions 2012
2011 was in some ways a wild year for HDTV and home theater, but in many other ways, fairly uneventful. We didn’t fare so well in our 2011 predictions, so we’re back this year with a vengeance. A lot of thought, research and soul searching went into these and we’re really hoping for a better than 50% score this year. Without further ado, the HT Guys HDTV and home theater predictions for 2012.
Prediction #1: The world will not end in 2012.
Braden’s Predictions
Wal-mart and Vudu will make a big play
Wal-mart has a ton of money, a gazillion customers and the highest quality streaming service available today. They are going to use that clout to make a big play in the new release streaming market this year. This could go one of two ways, either they will push into the realm of Ultraviolet and give away streaming versions of movies if you buy the disc at the store or online, or they will finally introduce a subscription service for new releases. Either way, they will shake things up a bit.
Netflix will remain fairly quiet
Trying to bounce back from a dismal 2011, Netflix will try to quietly rebuild the brand that once was. No more crazy announcements of billions of dollars spent on pointless content, no more doubling prices over night, and especially no more Qwikster, we’re one service, no we’re two services, no we’re one service again goofiness. Netflix will spend 2012 trying to erase 2011 from our memory by staying out of the spotlight and just doing business. This means announcements like new releases or a live TV service in 2012.
The 3D market will evolve significantly
Realizing that consumers simply don’t care about Active 3D technology, manufacturers will try to reinvent the 3D TV market in 2012. Many manufacturers will switch to passive technology and give away glasses by the truckload. Several companies will attempt to release glasses-free 3D at prices consumers would actually consider. Active 3D will start to fade away, like the CRT and DLP TVs of yesteryear. Consumer priced Passive 3D projectors will come to market that either don’t require a special screen, or the special screens will be available from all the standard screen companies for the same prices as the standard screens today.
Still no live TV via streaming
Despite the fact that Google, Apple, Dish, Verizon, {insert company name here} are talking about making all your favorite broadcast TV networks available for a fraction of the cost over your home Internet connection, it won’t happen this year. The Broadcasters and established distributors are still too powerful. We’d be elated if it did happen, but 2012 is still a bit too soon for this. Sure you may see pockets of “test cities” but for the vast majority of us, we’ll still need Cable or Satellite.
Ara’s Predictions
Apple will stop calling the AppleTV a hobby
Its a safe bet that a new AppleTV set top box will be introduced this year. Odds are that it will support 1080p and will have the same chip that’s in the iPhone 4S. What I claim that will set the AppleTV 3 apart is apps. My prediction is that Apple will open up the platform to application developers and that’s when the platform will really thrive. While you can do many of these things on a Roku its the iTunes eco-system that sets iThings apart from other devices.
Video On Demand Systems from Cable Companies will significantly hurt Netflix’s business
We’ve all seen VOD offerings on every cable or satellite service. This year they will have more and better titles sooner than they do today. I am predicting that some companies will offer subscription services similar to Netflix with titles that Netflix can’t obtain. The fact that the service fees will be rolled into the monthly fee will make it simple for subscribers to say yes. Consumers will continue to drop Netflix in droves which will cause a major management shakeup.
Forget about 3D, 4K is where its at
Its pretty clear that 3D did not spur the higher margin TV sales that manufacturers were hoping for. As a result, manufacturers are looking for a new technology that will separate consumers from their money. A 4K TV could just be that technology. At last year’s CES we saw a 4K TV that looked quite good with 1080p content being fed to it. I am predicting that we will see a 50 inch 4K set on sale for $2,500 or less. And with this TV hitting the streets video scaler companies will rejoice. They now have a reason to sell you hardware that will scale and process 1080p video into glorious 4K video!
A Studio will stop selling Stand alone DVDs
With Blu-ray players below $100 for more than a year now market penetration of the players is at about 25%. That number will hit 75% in about three years (side prediction). To make that happen faster look for at least one studio (probably Sony) to offer a combo Blu-ray/DVD package as the only option for a new release movie. The thought here is that some will spend the $75 or so to buy a Blu-ray player and watch the same movie in glorious HD.
Reader Comments (9)
RE: 3D
Firmly believe that the absolute lousy presentation in theaters is hurting 3D (along with policy of paying more for worse). Once home video (projection) comes up with a bright, inexpensive, passive system the medium will bloom.
4K may be great but expensive.
My two predictions for 2012:
3D will continue to fade from home theater as the public shows little interest, though TV manufacturers will continue to put 3D capability into their sets for most of the year. 3D will also begin to disappear from the theaters too as the studios move to cut costs to make up for the lousy 2011 numbers. Just like in the 1950s, 3D no longer is automatically selling tickets.
One of the studios that are producing MOD (manufactured-on-demand) DVDs for the movie collector audience will offer their first Blu-Ray MOD disc. It will probably be Warner Bros. in their Warner Archive collection.
The RSS feed is broken. It seems there must be an error in the XML code that was added for episode 511.
In my feed reader, the new episode appears but I get the error "HDTV-2011-12-30.mp3: (1, 'Protocol ttp not supported or disabled in libcurl')" when I try to download the file.
And if I just surf directly to the feed "http://feeds.feedburner.com/HdtvPodcast" no entries are displayed at all.
Yes, the RSS feed is not working however the download link is functional. I was able to save the episode right into my mp3 player.
Hi Guys,
I found the issue. We were misting an "h" in the URL. It should be good now.
Happy New Year!
Ara
You guys mentioned the changes to Netflix and how 2011 was such a bad year for them. One lingering effect of the changes, which I think impacts the "Netflix-first" attitude that a lot us used to have: you can't rate movies on disk if you only subscribe to the streaming service. That means you can't improve your recommendations by rating really good or really bad movies that are not part of their streaming program...which leaves a lot of movies that can't be rated.
Speaking of streaming, has anyone tried the free 14-day trial of Epix on the new Xbox 360 "Apps"? Really great selection of movies, but both titles I have tried, True Grit and The Next Three Days, were very washed-out looking. Very poor contract ratio - essentially gray, crushed blacks. Resolution is fine so I don't know what the issue is there. Has anyone else noticed it?
Regarding Apple and the possibility of an Apple TV, I have been wondering why - instead of smart TVs - don't we just have TVs that are really all-in-one computers? Basically a TV-sized display that has a full computer in it. You could chose to boot into computer mode with a full OS, or boot/switch to smart media mode - kind of like Windows Media Center but built right into the TV.
Does any manufacturer yet make a two-lens passive 3D projector? Assuming good convergence / calibration, a two-lens 1080p projector would yield full resolution 3D using the same cheapo glasses as in the theater, with plenty of brightness, etc. I'd buy that for a few grand (when and if I have that much to spend). It'd be AMAZING for football get togethers, as well as movies. If no one is making this yet, I'll make that my prediction, but I bet it'll be more than a few grand.
And, really, the problem isn't the delivery method. Offering it to us day-and-date in 1080p and 7.1 TrueHD won't help one little bit if the content is crap, as most movies are. I'm not paying at the theater and I'm not paying at home. I will wait for the Bluray disc. Braden mentioned Captain America as one that was worth going to. I'd second that and add a movie I saw from Netflix last night, Xmen First Class. Thor didn't quite connect the same way but, overall, Marvel had a pretty darn good year. I'd have seen those in the theater except for reviews that weren't very reliable.
As it is, we only paid box-office money to see Harry Potter and, since it was Bunko night, i got my son out of the house to see Cowboys and Aliens, which I enjoyed very much. The summer spectaculars failed pretty badly for us in '11. It's a good thing my son is old enough that I don't have to go with him anymore, I'd have been pretty unhappy paying big buck for movies i was so unimpressed with.
Come on, studios! Have writers complete the project from beginning to end, please!
ps, How can Netflix claim to have all the movies we want when it's all over ten years old or direct-to-video junk? Maybe some TV for back seasons but, overall, both Netflix and Amazon streaming are pretty weak. When they have new stuff on I might consider watching more. Of course, then I'll have to pay Uverse's internet traffic penalty. So...I'll probably still wait for the disc.
Boy, I'm grouchy today!