Dec 23 Podcast #510: HT Guys 2011 Prediction Results
Podcast Tags: 3D, Google TV, HDTV Predictions, LCD 
Every year in late December or early January we look into our crystal ball to see what the coming year will bring in the way of HDTV and Home Theater. Each year we struggle to get a score of 50%, and in many years we fall way short. So let’s take a look at 2011 and see how we did.
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HT Guys 2011 Prediction Results
Braden’s Predictions
Designer 3D Glasses
This was a somewhat busted prediction. As was pointed out by our audience, there were already designer passive 3D glasses on the market by such companies as Oakley and others. My prediction was more along the active 3D glasses line, but even that was a failure. With 3D being the somewhat “meh” flop that it has been, and that it’s difficult to produce a “universal” set of glasses, there’s just no demand for any glasses, much less designer glasses.
Pico Projectors will build a niche
I’ll be generous and score this as partial credit. Pacific Media Associates (PMA) says that total pico projector sales (including all battery-powered, or battery-powerable models and embedded light engines) reached about 830,000 units in the first half of 2011 - up from 270,000 units in the first half of 2010. The market grew by more than 3 times in one year. That’s great growth, but we haven’t really seen a “niche” develop - especially not a home entertainment niche.
New releases via streaming
This is another partial credit because we got close, or at least closer, than we were before. If we say that VOD is the same thing as streaming and that DirecTV is the same thing as the Internet and that 60 days after theatrical release is stall considered a “new” release, then I nailed this one. If you don’t agree with any of those assertions, you might deduct some points from the total score. But DirecTV pushed the issue, so there’s hope for more movement in that direction next year.
I’ll take Google FTW
Not quite. Google didn’t gain any significant ground in home entertainment, but nobody else did either. It was pretty much a stalemate this year when it comes to new technology in the home theater. No wow factor, no winners and really no losers. Sure the Logitech Revue flopped, but Google TV is still built into Sony TVs and they’re in talks with Samsung and other companies as well. Eric Schmidt, Google's Executive Chairman is quoted as predicting that, "By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google TV embedded." So maybe I was just 1 year early in my prediction.
Ara’s Predictions
LCD TVs hit 600Hz refresh rate
Well this was completely incorrect. At this point in time the fastest refresh rates I can find are 480Hz. So maybe I’m a year off in this. We are of the opinion that once you get past 120Hz it really doesn’t improve your viewing experience unless you are watching test content designed to specifically look better at 240 or 480Hz.
Automobile Based Mobile Video will become a reality
For this prediction I was counting on using data not satellite signals for the video. I got close on this one but I may be a year or two away. The following except is from MotorAutority.com:
OnStar will offer such features as cloud-based streaming of information and entertainment, rear-seat infotainment management and video chat.
While it doesn't get into the specific configuration, the pictures make it appear as though the car itself is equipped with a 4G modem that provides Internet connectivity and services throughout. In the rear, we see two tablet computers that look hardwired directly to the car.
An LCD TV will be demonstrated that is 1mm thick or less
OK, this was a pipe dream. TV’s measuring 1mm thick are really the realm of OLED technology. A company called AOC announced a 3D 1080p LCD that was 9.6mm. So I was off by a factor of 10. For what its worth, Samsung announced a 7 inch LCD that was 1mm thick.
Google TV will Flop
As far as 2011 goes I will claim that I got this one right. After all, Logitech lost $100 million in operating profit part of which was due to the Revue. And their chairman Guerrino De Luca is on record saying that it was a “Big Mistake”
However, with that said, the latest version of GoogleTV has some excited about the product’s future and when you consider that Google will license the software to TV manufacturers, there is life left in it. So while I’ll say it flopped in 2011 I won’t count GoogleTV out just yet. We’ll have to revisit this again in the future.
Reader Comments (1)
These are always interesting shows. Since you are pretty aggressive with your predictions, it might be interesting to go back more than one year and see if some of the older predictions have finally come true, or just were off the mark.