Dec 31 Podcast #459: Predictions for 2011
Podcast Tags: HDTV Predictions 
It’s that time of year where we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. Last year we improved our accuracy a small fraction but we’re still hanging in around 30%. So let’s take another shot for 2011.
Listen to the show
Today's Show:
News:
- Google may have told Logitech to stop the Revue
- Theater operators fight studios' plan to release movies in homes earlier
- D-Link sees better than expected Boxee Box sales
- DirecTV Boosts Prices 4%
- Sears and Kmart Start Movie Downloads
Other:
- How to repair a dent in your car - thanks Jack
Predictions for 2011
It’s that time of year where we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. Last year we improved our accuracy a small fraction but we’re still hanging in around 30%. So let’s take another shot for 2011.
So were not going to take the obvious predictions like:
- HDTV prices will drop
- 3D TV will become the predominant TV available for sale
- 3D content will become more abundant
- Streaming will become more available
- Web Connected TVs will become the norm
- Redbox streaming Video
- iPad anything
But then again that’s is why we are only at 30% on our predictions each year!
Ara's Predictions:
LCD TVs hit 600Hz refresh rate - Look for at least one LCD manufacturer to introduce a TV with 600Hz refresh rate. That’s 10 times faster than the first generation LCDs. Will it make your TV look better? Come on! Of course it will look ten times better than your original LCD ;-)
Automobile Based Mobile Video will become a reality - About 5 CESs ago Braden and I saw a demonstration of mobile satellite TV that was pretty cool. But you needed a large antenna mounted on the top of your roof that made it impossible to put anything else up there. With mobile DTV, 3G and LTE cell networks it will become possible to watch network television on monitors in your car with little more than a cell phone antenna and a mobile device. Look for Ford’s My Sync System to be first with a solution followed by GM and BMW.
An LCD TV will be demonstrated that is 1mm thick or less - In 2008 Pioneer showed off a TV that was 9mm thick, in May of 2009 it was LG showing off a TV with a 5.9mm thickness and at last year’s CES LG showed a TV that was only 2.6mm deep. So why not push the envelope a bit and predict a 1 mm TV? At that point is OLED even needed in a large format display?
Google TV will Flop - Despite the money behind Google I think the bad press GoogleTV received at the end of 2010 will be difficult to overcome.
Braden's Predictions:
Designer 3D Glasses - Knowing that CE manufacturers aren’t giving up on the whole 3D thing, traditional sunglasses companies will see the need for people to take their own 3D glasses with them to friends houses or sports bars to enjoy TV in 3D. You’ll be able to buy Oakley or Ray-ban 3D glasses, to look stylish, even if you don’t own a 3D TV (These are for the home, so they're active 3D, not passive).
Pico Projectors will build a niche - Some inventive companies will find ways to make Pico projectors relevant to home theater or TV viewing in general. At less than $500 each, for potentially a 60”-100” screen, there’s got to be a way to make them viable for home entertainment, like multiple screens in a loft or bonus room, or a sports bar type of setting. “Living” walls like we see in all the futuristic movies?
New releases via streaming - Movie theater owners will put up quite a fight, but needing to expand revenue, studios will make new releases available via streaming within 30 days of the theatrical release. They’ll cost a hefty premium, somewhere in the $30-$40 range, but for a family of 4 (not to mention 6), it will still be a good deal.
I’ll take Google FTW - Despite the negative press around CES, Google will come out on top at the end of 2011. Google TV will be everywhere, even making its way to the “value” brands like Vizio. Android will dominate smart phone sales as well as tablet sales.
As always we welcome your predictions. Please post them in the form of a comment below.
Reader Comments (4)
Designer 3D glasses are already in the market. Oakley makes passive 3D glasses.
they have been available as of Nov 8 this year.
http://www.oakley.com/community/posts/2585
BTW, I recently set up 4 Mac Mini 2010/PLEX based HTPC system using a Netgear ReadyNAS Pro Pioneer edition 6bay 12TB NAS to serve the media over Cat5. One of the systems required using a HDMI to component adapter. I used a HDFury 3 for that purpose. It worked out quite well. The plasma screens I connected the minis to were all rather old and could only support up to 1080i and the connection was though an outboard box.
Luckily Mac OS X Snow Leopard is flexible enough to allow for underscan to fit the video inside the confines of the screen.
There is a Crestron wireless flat panel controller for the system in the den that controls the entire system except the mini. Is there a way I can use the iPad with the Crestron app to replace the old wireless viewsonic?
Would you know if that is possible?
My 2011 predictions:
1) Not a single 50"+ LCD with a matte screen.
It's glossy all the way, and that makes me very sad. While I love and prefer plasma, you really do need to keep the ambient light under control in order for plasma to look its best. For most living rooms (with lights and sunlight), a good matte screen was the best choice. So say goodbye to having ANY good choice in 2011 :(
2) Apple TV takes off.
I expect to see apps on the Apple TV sooner rather than later. I also expect the Apple TV 2 before the end of 2011. I believe the Apple TV 2 will keep the $99 price point and very compact form factor, but it will up the ante with 1080p output. With games, access to your complete iTunes library, plus 3rd party apps from the likes of Netflix and Hulu Plus, I fully expect Apple TV (2) to become the dominant "streaming box" in the industry.
3) 3D continues to fall flat.
3D is stupid and unnecessary. With each 3D movie that I see in the theater (just watched Tron: Legacy), I become more convinced that 3D is completely worthless. I will take higher resolution, a brighter image, and an image free from distracting blur and "cross-talk" over a gimmick that adds absolutely nothing to the experience any day! And I don't think I'm alone in that opinion.
4) Studios will partner up with ISPs to thwart Net Neutrality and attempt to crack down on inexpensive (or free) methods of distribution.
This might go against everything we - as consumers - want, and it might go against common sense, but the Studios strongly hold to the notion that movies are worth $12 per person, per viewing and ISPs HATE the idea of you using THEIR bandwidth - even when you've paid a ridiculously high price for it. Net Neutrality doesn't make any concessions for copyrighted content. And Net Neutrality itself - as a law - might not even survive! So expect ISPs to start throttling back on your Netflix streams, introduce bandwidth caps and essentially "force" you into "Studio Approved" distribution channels that adhere to the $5-for-24-hours-of-access pricing model. And for the people saying, "that'll just push everyone to pirate and bittorrent" just watch how your download speeds slow to an absolute crawl and you find yourself being charged "overage fees" for exceeding your bandwidth caps.
Sorry folks, but the Studio AND ISP mentality is anything but "more access with lower prices". They want $5 every single time you watch something. And with ISPs screaming over people actually USING the Internet bandwidth that they paid good money for (the nerve!), the Studios and ISPs are becoming fast friends and planning everything they can to get AWAY from what consumers want. Who'd have ever thought that people would be looking to the FCC to be the hero in all of this?
No way they'd go to 600hz! They have to go to 720 to make the plasma 600hz subfield drive look inferior. The implication there is that the plasma manufacturers will go to 1,200hz...