Dec 24 Podcast #458: 2010 Prediction Results
Podcast 
Each year we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. The last few years we have been about 30% accurate but that doesn't stop us from trying. Let’s take a look back at what we thought 2010 would bring to see how we did.
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Today's Show:
News:
- Google TV Faces Delays Amid Poor Reviews
- Roku CEO credits sales boost to new Apple TV
- Americans Rank Picture Quality As No. 1 Factor When Buying A HDTV
- Why Aren’t People Buying 3D and Connected TVs?
- Apple TV sales expected to rise to 1 million
Other:
- Check out iFanboy.com, the web's best comic book discussion site
- Need auto detailing in the southern california area? Visit SoCalAutoSpa.com
2010 Prediction Results
Each year we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. The last few years we have been about 30% accurate but that doesn't stop us from trying. Let’s take a look back at what we thought 2010 would bring to see how we did.
Ara's Predictions
Apple will change the TV industry - Almost. There is a new Apple TV with AirPlay Technology, and as you can see in the video Ara made on the subject (AppleTV Airplay Demonstration) , AppleTV and Airplay have the potential to make a big splash in the living room. Because Apple is licensing the technology to 3rd party developers it can achieve broad acceptance and once Apple opens the AppleTV to apps, the industry will definitely change. Give me partial credit on this one.
3D Will be Forced Upon All of Us - Nailed this one. Despite the fact that every major survey says most consumers don’t care at all about 3D, manufacturers are pushing it as the next major revolution in home entertainment.
OLED will break the 11 inch barrier for a commercially available model - “Look for LG to introduce a 40 inch model before the year is over.” Unfortunately this didn’t happen. The 11” Sony XEL-1 is still the only OLED TV available for sale in the US. The price is down to a very reasonable $1799, however. LG did manage to show a 31 inch prototype so maybe next year this one will come to be a reality.
Plasma will hold on to market share if not get a little stronger - According to DisplaySearch approximately 4.8 million Plasma TVs were sold in Q3 of this year for a total market share of 8.1%. That represents 8% Q/Q growth and 35% Y/Y growth (up from 6.5% market share in Q3 2009). During the same period, LCD had 76.3% market share with 9% Q/Q growth but only 22% Y/Y growth. Plasma didn’t steal market from LCD, but benefited along with LCD from the decline of CRT. But bottom line, Plasma did, in fact, gain market share.
Total score: 2/4 - An astonishing 50%.
Braden's Predictions
Netflix will make some new releases available via streaming - Unfortunately not. Netflix is pushing hard to get more content, both on the Movie and TV side, but still no new releases via streaming.
Blockbuster will make the transition to kiosk - Yep. Here’s the quotes: “Blockbuster has already closed more than 1,000 underperforming stores in the past two years...The company revealed … that it plans to close 72 stores before the end of the year and another 110 stores in the first few months of 2011.” AND... “...through the alliance with NCR Corp., {Blockbuster} expects at least 7,500 Blockbuster Express kiosks by the end of 2010.”
High Definition streaming will become a reality - Still waiting, unfortunately.
3D in the home will flop - This really depends on how you look at it. Manufacturers sure haven’t let up, but most surveys indicate that consumers are uninterested in the technology. Twice Magazine reported that Adam Zwickler, a Best Buy Home Theater specialist said interest in 3D TV was "light" during their Black Friday weekend sales. A representative from Sears confirmed that assessment, noting that the 3D TVs drew little attention at their retail outlets as well. Partial credit on this one?
4K TV will emerge as the "next big thing" - Nope. Nothing. Nada. Manufacturers are holding onto the 3D thing, so there’s no need to introduce the “next big thing” yet.
Total score: 1.75/5 - A respectable 35%, right in line with our average.
Reader Comments (7)
You're not counting Netflix's HD streaming? Aren't there a few others too?
JR,
We're not counting Netflix because its overly compressed. The intent of the predication was that you would have similar quality as Blu Ray. Vudu HDX is very close but its not main stream enough so in the end Braden didn't count that as a correct predication.
Ara
^^^Unfortunately, I truly believe that Blu-ray is the maximum quality that we will ever see in our homes and that the future of video is a lot like music - where the true successor to CDs was mp3, not SACD or DVD-Audio.
The future is instantly delivered content - be that via Internet or via some form of Cable On Demand system. Even downloads will be a thing of the past. People want to browse or search, pick a movie or show and have it instantly start playing.
Even though internet speeds will undoubtedly get faster, the simple truth is that it doesn't really make sense to even aim for quality that is equal to Blu-ray. Bandwidth priority will always be given to quantity, not quality. I'm not saying that Instant Access Video won't ever get higher in quality than it is right now - I fully expect the quality to get a bit better. But I really just don't think that Blu-ray quality is the goal or something we will ever actually see in our homes ever again.
That's why I'm building as large a Blu-ray collection as I can. Unlike DVD - which I knew was going to eventually be improved upon in terms of image quality - I honestly think that Blu-ray is the peak for in-home audio/video quality. From here on out, it's going to be a waiting game to see if Instant will ever even come close. But that HT Guys dream of 4K or 8K being "the next big thing? Sorry, but I just don't think anyone - not the studios nor the general populace - has any intention of moving in that (awesome) direction. It's Instant Access all the way. And that means that - just as mp3 and AAC are still chasing CD quality, so too will Instant Access video forever be chasing the Blu-ray quality that we have right now.
"Blah blah blah netflix netflix netflix hulu netflix hulu hulu netflix blah blah netflix netflix netflix netflix netflix blah blah blah!" You guys have a nice netflix podcast keep it up *sarcasm*
^^^ Hey, what'd'ya know? The same twit found both AVRant and The HDTV & Home Theater Podcast. Good for you, mate! Maybe you can leave the same comment on EVERY PODCAST IN THE WORLD.
Just apply yourself.
*sarcasm*
I am pretty impressed with Zune HD "instant" downloads. I probably use it once every month or two. There are a lot of households with an Xbox 360 and Xbox Live, but there's no telling how popular the Zune HD movie service is.
Ara,
Enough with the Kool Aid. The Apple TV Mac Mini are a poor excuses in the home theatre realm. The Mac Mini is not a worthy contender for a HTPC, so long as Blu-ray is not supported and the Apple TV is a deficient product for the unknowing and the Apple fanboys. Without 1080p and Blu-ray support and very limited codec support out of the box, the Apple TV is a crippled bastard child.
For the person that wanted a set top box under $200 then I would recommend the SageTV HD300 box. It works with Windows\OS X\Linux. It's HDMI 1.3 and will play Blu-ray content (limited to the movie only) with Dolby TrueHD and DTS Master Audio pass through. One can either attach a USB hard drive to the box or connect the box to the home networked and a NAS. Although the interface isn't the prettiest, I'll take its functionality over the eye candy of the lame box put out by Apple. And you can even use SageTV on a computer to recover OTA channels and/or QAM channels (unencrypted cable).
Finally Ara, your podcast is sounding like a 30-45 minute Apple commercial. Enough already!
I suggest you change the name from htguys to applehtguys because it's obvious your affection for Apple clouds your objectivity. How else do you explain promoting an Mac Mini for home theatre duties when it can't do Blu-ray?