Dec 18 Podcast #404: 2009 Prediction Results
Podcast 
Each year we try to predict what will happen in our industry and each year we usually miss the mark. On today's show we take a look back at our predictions for 2009.
Listen to the show
Today's Show:
News:
- Amazon gives away digital movies with disc purchase
- 8 Companies That Are Reinventing TV Online
- Lord of the Rings hits Blu-ray in April
- DIRECTV Fesses Up On 'HDTV Capacity'
- Cowboys Stadium 3D scoreboard experiment doesn't go so well
2009 Prediction Results
Ara's Predictions
Netbooks will become popular as portable A/V devices - Wrong! As it turns out Netbooks are not nearly as popular as we thought they were going to be. Maybe it was the performance or the size of the keyboard. Regardless, I think this was a missed marketing opportunity by computer manufacturers. Perhaps Apple's tablet may be the device I was hoping that netbooks would be.
Movie Download services will Blossom - Maybe not quite blossom, but there is definitely a bud on the vine. Netflix is everywhere, iTunes is doing quite well too. Throw in Amazon and VOD you can see a healthy ecosystem for movie downloads.
Corollary Prediction to Above - Studios realizing that consumers are staying home and downloading will shorten the release window. Release windows remained about the same but we now have way more Day and Date releases for VOD. Its kind of a corollary to the corollary.
Blu-ray Movie Prices will be on par with their DVD counterparts - Nailed this one! Harry Potter recent release for $15 at Amazon.
Digital Transition will go smoothly - For the vast majority of people the switch went quite smoothly. Even though I lost four local channels here in LA. I wish KTTV, KABC, KCAL, and KCOP would get it together and boost their power already.
DirecTV and/or Dish Network will start transmitting Dolby Digital Plus Audio Tracks on some channels - Well this didn't happen. But I am still dreaming. You really can tell the difference between AC3 and DD+. Maybe this year?
Braden's Predictions
New release downloads will go "all you can eat" - Bummer. As hard as I tried I couldn't will this into existence.
Portable Blu-ray players will hit the shelves - Wrong again. Not sure why we haven't seen these all over the place yet, but maybe Blu-ray just hasn't hit the penetration level needed for the portable option to make much sense yet.
A true iPhone alternative will emerge - In a world of doesn't, Droid Does. I have a Droid and love it to pieces. Sure, there are things the iPhone does better than the Driod, likewise there are things the Droid does better. But it is a true alternative that has some muscle behind it. Nailed this one.
Blu-ray prices will fall to be the same as DVD - We've seen Blu-ray movies on sale for less than DVD in some cases. It's still true that Blu-ray movies typically release at a premium when they come out on Tuesday, but they come down quickly and often hit the same price as DVD within a few weeks. We'd like to see them release for the same price, but this was a good prediction.
Something really exciting will happen in TV technology - Uh, well, there was... No wait, remember when... Alright, so nothing all that memorable happened this year. 2010 for sure!
Reader Comments (5)
So Ara, did Leo's ads on Twit for Sync finally get to you? Looking forward to a review.
Tom,
I have driven Fords since the mid 90's. I love my Mustang GT! So there was a high probability that my next car was going to be another Ford. Sync was just the icing on the cake. I'm going to try and do a video review of it. I want to play around with Video a lot more in 2010.
Ara
I bet no one predicted a $50 blu-ray player for Christmas '09, but sure enough, that's the price of the Magnavox blu-ray player at Wal-Mart here in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. FIFTY. DOLLARS. Heck, the Magnavox DVD player was $38! And the really sad thing? We couldn't think of anyone on our Christmas list at that price range who would care. :-)
The songs. Someone should mention the songs in GR, which are also great.
I have had a mixed relationship with P's prose -- loved V, loved GR, loved loved loved The Crying of Lot 49... but didn't like Vineland and couldn't finish Mason Dixon.... Then along came Against the Day and even though some of the reviews weren't great, it seemed to me like a return to GR' s fullness of vision.
Can't wait to get my copy tomorrow of Inherent Vice -- I haven't read any of the reviews yet, but am just slightly uneasy that early on I read something that said it's more like Vineland than like his other books.
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